Category: Guest Authors

US Workers Lost Ground to Immigrants In January

By Joe Guzzardi

As always, the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report requires scrutiny to uncover the nuances that obscure the truth. On February 7, the BLS released the January 2025 economic report. Throughout former President Biden’s four-year term, analysts cast a skeptical eye on what they claimed were inflated job creation totals. Last Labor Day, the BLS confirmed a significant error, and confessed to overstating job creation numbers from March 2023 to March 2024 by at least 818,000, the largest miscalculation in 15 years.

In January, total non-farm payroll employment rose by 143,000, with job gains concentrated in low-paying sectors including health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Conversely, employment declined in higher-paying industries such as mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.

Immigration experts have long speculated about how the Biden administration’s border policies would manifest in monthly BLS data. During Biden’s presidency, millions of illegal aliens crossed the border, most requiring employment to support themselves. The CBP-One mobile phone app—an illegal Biden maneuver—was officially announced in 2023 but actually had begun in 2021, providing a means for illegal aliens to fly to their preferred U.S. city. The administration unconstitutionally granted them parole, an immigration status that includes employment authorization. The impact of these newly admitted millions on the workforce was inevitable, though it was unlikely to be highlighted during Biden’s tenure. Immigration, typically a taboo subject for Biden and his staff, was rarely discussed except in positive terms.

The Center for Immigration Studies’ (CIS) Director of Research, Steven Camarota, analyzed the January 2025 Household Survey, which finally accounted for the substantial legal and illegal immigration surge since 2020. The significant population increase predictably influenced the labor market. The new BLS data revealed that since January 2020—the period just before COVID and the immigration surge—88 percent of all employment growth has gone to legal and illegal immigrants, often referred to as foreign-born. Immigrant-dominated employment occurred simultaneously with a near-record share, 22.1 percent, of working-age U.S.-born men detached from the labor force.

As CIS previously noted, earlier surveys’ failure to fully account for the illegal immigration flow resulted in an underestimation of the total U.S. population. Good news for American workers appears on the horizon. President Trump’s commitment to securing the border and his immediate cancellation of the CBP-One app have dampened prospective illegal aliens’ enthusiasm for entering the U.S. unlawfully. In January, the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the first time after 26 months of contraction, as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—an indicator of prevailing economic trends in manufacturing and service sectors—registered 50.9 percent, 1.7 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 49.2 percent reported in December.

Of the subindexes that directly factor into PMI, new orders, production, employment, and supplier deliveries were in expansion territory compared to only two subindexes showing improvement in December, the last full month of the Biden administration. PMI has surged since President Trump’s November election, as manufacturers and buyers anticipate more business-friendly policies.

The remainder of the first calendar quarter will reveal whether Trump’s presidency truly represents an America-first agenda or if his current popularity is merely a temporary blip on the four-year political radar.

Joe Guzzardi is an Institute for Sound Public Policy analyst. Contact him at jguzzardi@ifspp.org

Noem to Terminate Venezuela TPS

By Joe Guzzardi

The list of misguided federal immigration policies is extensive, making it challenging to identify the most detrimental one. Among the most harmful to U.S. citizens is the H-1B visa program, which has displaced tens of thousands of skilled U.S. IT workers and denied recent college graduates fair access to high-paying, white-collar jobs. While employers claim a shortage of U.S. engineers without supporting evidence, the visa has been continuously issued for over three decades. Carter administration Labor Secretary Ray Marshall called the H-1B visa “the biggest hoax ever perpetrated on the public.”

Optional Practical Training (OPT), another concerning program, lacks congressional approval yet offers employers significant benefits. OPT employees are exempt from payroll tax, providing employers roughly 8% savings per hire. The program has expanded to become the nation’s largest guestworker program, with an estimated 300,000 participants annually—far exceeding the H-1B’s 85,000 cap.

Also prominent in current headlines is Temporary Protected Status (TPS), a quasi-amnesty that under President Joe Biden’s administration expanded to include seventeen nations, including those hostile to the U.S. like Somalia, Syria, and Venezuela.

TPS prevents deportations for 18-month periods and can be renewed indefinitely. Historically, terminating the program has proved challenging. In 2017 and 2018, the first Trump administration announced plans to end TPS designations for El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, Nepal, and Nicaragua, concluding that conditions in these countries no longer warranted protected status. Honduras and Nicaragua received their original TPS designation 27 years ago following Hurricane Mitch, while El Salvador’s status dates back 24 years to a 2001 earthquake—hardly “temporary” timeframes. However, in June 2023, then-Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas rescinded these terminations and granted 18-month extensions for all five countries. In one of his final official acts, Mayorkas extended Venezuela’s 2023 TPS designation from April 3, 2025, through October 2, 2026.

The new DHS Secretary, Kristi Noem, has given TPS critics hope for reform of the entire program. Of the estimated 600,000 Venezuelan TPS recipients currently living in the U.S., 350,000 will lose their employment authorization documents when their designations expire in April. The remaining 250,000, whose authorizations expire in September, will also see their TPS and employment privileges terminated under Noem’s direction.

The Federal Register’s notice regarding these changes highlighted how TPS has enabled thousands of inadmissible aliens to settle in the U.S., straining local resources and maxing out city shelters, police stations, and aid services. DHS also noted the increased presence of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua (TdA), a state-sponsored transnational criminal organization now active in at least seventeen states.

The notice cited the “potential magnetic effect” of anticipated 18-month extensions on illegal immigration. “The anticipated designation or extension for TPS and resulting benefit to access [work authorization documents] have been pull factors driving Venezuelan nationals to the United States.” Given President Trump’s January 20 executive orders, Secretary Noem determined that extending Venezuela’s 2023 TPS designation “is in fact contrary to the national interest.” DHS noted that while some challenging conditions persist in Venezuela, improvements in the economy, public health, and crime now allow for safe repatriation.

Though the State Department reissued a Level Four “Do Not Travel” Advisory for Venezuela in September 2024, U.S.-Venezuela relations show signs of improvement. Venezuela has agreed to accept deported illegal aliens, including TdA gang members, and President Nicolas Maduro released six American detainees. Over the past decade, more than 7.7 million Venezuelans have fled their country, creating one of the world’s largest migration crises. Regarding DHS’s immigration agenda under her leadership, Noem stated simply: “We’ve just gotten started.”

Joe Guzzardi is an Institute for Sound Public Policy analyst. Contact him at jguzzardi@ifspp.org

Emmett Ashford Was First Black Umpire

By Joe Guzzardi

For Emmett Ashford, Major League Baseball’s first black umpire, his many challenges to succeed might have deterred others. But Ashford overcame, did an outstanding job, and entertained fans with his colorful, animated on-the-field calls. Los Angeles-born in 1914, Ashford was on his Jefferson High School track and baseball teams. Ashford, the senior class president, graduated in 1933 and then attended Los Angeles Junior College and Chapman College. After graduating, Ashford aced a civil service exam and landed a post office clerk’s job as a clerk where he remained for about 15 years.

In his essay, baseball historian and author Mark Armour wrote that as a young man, Ashford was skilled enough to play semi-pro baseball, but he mostly rode the pine. In 1941, the scheduled umpire didn’t show up, and the players asked Ashford to fill in. Ashford complied— “kicking and screaming.” As the season continued, Ashford established himself as a better umpire than a ball player. “I gave them a little showmanship and the crowd loved it,” he later remembered about his flashy style behind the plate.

After he finished a three-year U.S. Navy stint during World War II, Ashford umpired regularly, moving up to topflight college baseball. Ashford took a leave of absence from his post office job in 1951 for a two-month Southwestern International League trial and became organized baseball’s first black umpire. Les Powers, the league president, observed that “Ashford has the making of a big-league umpire.” After the season, SIL offered Ashford a full-time job; he quit the postal service, thereby forfeiting 15 years toward his pension.

Ashford moved up to the Western International League in 1953, before his promotion to the Pacific Coast League in 1954. During his 12 years in the PCL, Ashford became the minor leagues’ best-known umpire, sprinting down the right field line, constantly interacting, and doffing his cap. Before his first MLB season, Ashford reflected, “I feel proud being an umpire in the big leagues. Not because I am the first Negro, but because umpires in the major leagues are very select people. Right now, I just want to vindicate Mr. Cronin’s [American League president] faith in me… But first, I’ve got to buy me a pair of eyeglasses,” he joked.

Ashford’s first regular-season game occurred on April 11, 1966, in Washington D.C’s Griffith Stadium, the traditional American League opener which pitted the Cleveland Indians against the woe-be-gone Senators. His first major-league challenge was getting into the ballpark. Vice-President Hubert Humphrey attended so he could throw out the ceremonial first ball, but the skeptical Secret Service doubted that a black man could have been assigned to the umpiring crew. Humphrey later kidded Ashford, who had worked at third base, that he had not had any plays to call. “No plays, no boots,” kidded Ashford, “but it was the greatest day of my life.” Cronin told his new employee, “Emmett, today you made history. I’m proud of you.”

Even Ashford’s peers were often hostile. Pitcher Jim Bouton described Ashford’s travails in Ball Four, his 1969 season baseball expose: “Other umpires talk behind his back. Sometimes they’ll let him run out on the field himself and the other three who are holding back in the dugout will snigger…. It must be terrible for Ashford. When you’re an umpire and travel around the big leagues in a group of four and three of them are white…well, it can make for a very lonely summer.”

By the time Ashford made his MLB debut, he was over fifty and some of his questionable calls enraged American League managers, many of whom, The New York Times George Vecsey wrote, had “rarely been confronted with black authority in their lives.” After umpiring in the 1970 World Series, Ashford retired, officially because he was past the mandatory 55-year-old retirement age although some in the media speculated that he had been nudged out.

In his post-retirement years, Ashford worked as a public relations adviser to then MLB Commissioner Bowie Kuhn, he umpired an occasional minor-league or college game, called old-timers’ games in Dodger Stadium and, for three years, was umpire-in-chief for the Alaskan summer league. Ashford also earned money doing TV commercials and occasional screen appearances. Looking back on his pioneering role, Ashford said: ““It wasn’t easy being an umpire, let alone being a Negro umpire. But since the game is the ballplayer’s bread and butter, all he wants is for you to make the right calls. He doesn’t care if you’re white or black, Eskimo or Indian. In turn, I worked like hell. I was an umpire, not a black umpire.”

After a heart attack Ashford, age 76, died in 1980 in Marina Del Ray, Calif. Ashford’s body was cremated, and his ashes are interred at Lakeview Cemetery in Cooperstown, New York.

Joe Guzzardi is an Institute for Sound Public Policy analyst. Contact him at jguzzardi@ifspp.org

Emmett Ashford Was First Black Umpire

Birthright Citizenship Headed to SCOTUS

By Joe Guzzardi

For decades, birthright citizenship has vexed Republicans, Democrats, and constitutional scholars. President Donald Trump’s Executive Order described both birthright citizenship’s history and its purpose:

 From Trump’s EO, Protecting the Value and Meaning of America Citizenship: “The Fourteenth Amendment states: ‘All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.’  That provision rightly repudiated the Supreme Court of the United States’ shameful decision in Dred Scott v. Sandford, 60 U.S. (19 How.) 393 (1857), which misinterpreted the Constitution as permanently excluding people of African descent from eligibility for United States citizenship solely based on their race.” Trump’s EO would also deny citizenship to foreign nationals legally but temporarily present in the U.S. such as holders of student, work, or tourist visas.

The heated controversy centers around two Fourteenth Amendment phrases. Supporters of the status quo cite “all persons born or naturalized in the United States” which has come to mean illegal aliens and temporary legal residents. Opponents argue that foreign nationals are not and cannot be considered “subject to” the U.S.’s jurisdiction. Predictably, the ACLU and 22 blue state governors and attorneys’ generals immediately challenged the administration’s EO set to be effective in 30 days but would not be retroactive.

When birthright citizenship’s broad scope is considered, the potential negative consequences must be weighed. Start with the 2021-2023 non-immigrant I-94 admissions category to the U.S.—millions of individuals, which includes temporary workers and their families, NAFTA professional workers, specialty occupation workers–mostly H-1B visa holders—and intracompany transfers and their spouses, all of whom could grow or start new families with their children born on U.S. soil automatically becoming American citizens. An estimated 300,000-400,000 citizen children are born each year to mothers who have no legitimate ties to the U.S.

Another temporary visa category, the B, intended for tourism and business purposes, stood at eight million total issued in 2023. The B visa has spawned the most blatant, egregious federal immigration abuses and stands out as the best example of why birthright citizenship should end. Granting automatic citizenship to foreign nationals’ children is a lure to come to the U.S. to deliver a citizen child. President Trump is right to end this practice because, among its other inherent flaws, the birthright citizenship industry encourages illegal activity and threatens national security. The State Department documented that, based on reporting from U.S. embassies and consulates, trends showed an increasing number of B visa applicants whose primary purpose of travel is to give birth in the U.S.

Birth tourism is a criminal enterprise that involves complex schemes and yields millions of dollars in ill-gotten gains. Shady overseas businesses, approximately 500 in China alone, promote birth tourism on the Internet and on social media. As an example of unlawful activity, on January 31, 2019, federal prosecutors announced indictments against 19 people operating three Southern California birth tourism schemes. The “maternity” or “birthing houses” principals charged their clients tens of thousands of dollars, and, in one case, “more than $3.4 million in international wire transfers” were received within a two-year span.

Operators also coached their Chinese customers on how to lie to U.S. officials and hide their pregnancies. Furthermore, “the indictments allege that many of the Chinese birth tourism customers failed to pay all of the medical costs associated with their hospital births, and the debts were referred to collection.” The charges also included making false statements to immigration officials, contempt of court, marriage fraud, visa fraud, and money laundering. The craven perpetrators fled back to China and are now fugitives from justice.

Because birth tourism, per se, is clandestine, there is no definitive breakdown by country of origin. Evidence points to many birth tourists originate from China, Taiwan, South Korea, Nigeria, Türkiye, Russia, Brazil, and Mexico. Russia and China have long histories of anti-American espionage activities while others may harbor anti-American sentiments. The State Department warned that such a practice could allow foreign governments or entities to recruit or groom U.S. citizens who were born through birth tourism but raised overseas, without attachment to the U.S. could threaten national security.

As anticipated, challenges to Trump’s EO came immediately. The ACLU and twenty-two blue states filed lawsuits. On January 23 in Seattle, a federal judge heard and temporarily blocked President Trump’s executive order. Appeals will eventually reach the Supreme Court, which will have the opportunity to finally resolve the birthright citizenship conundrum. In the meantime, the administration must toughen up. Visa fraud is a crime. Airport Customs and Border Patrol agents should be more aware of pregnant women attempting to enter. ICE agents can visit birth hotels, put the squeeze on the proprietors, demand to see registration and visa documents, and let all criminal parties involved know that immigration authorities are aware of fraud. The bad news that will get back to China that enforcement is looming, a step in the right direction regardless of how the Supreme Court may rule.

Joe Guzzardi is an Institute for Sound Public Policy analyst. Contact him at jguzzardi@ifspp.org

Birthright Citizenship Headed to SCOTUS

Birthright Citizenship Headed to SCOTUS