Category: Election 2025

Pennsylvania High Stakes Supreme Court Election

By Joe Guzzardi

On November 4, four high-profile races will provide insight into how well the voting public has warmed to Trump 47’s agenda. The first three — Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial campaigns, as well as California’s Prop 50, which seeks to redraw the state’s congressional districts to favor Democrats — have been highly publicized. In Virginia and New Jersey, GOP underdogs have closed to within the margin of error that the once-prohibitive favorites enjoyed. Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill faces off against former state assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey, and in Virginia, ex-congresswoman Abigail Spanberger goes up against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Governor Gavin Newsom’s Prop 50 is rated a toss-up; Californians have grown tired of the sanctuary state’s love affair with illegal aliens under Newsom and his predecessors.
Flying under the national radar, but equally crucial to the GOP’s long-term success, is defeating three incumbent activist Democratic Pennsylvania Supreme Court members who fostered extremist positions outside their authority to rule on, with then-Governor Tom Wolf’s convenient, tacit blessing.

As Pittsburgh-based Washington Examiner journalist Salena Zito reported, the GOP’s drop to its current 5–2 Senate minority position began 10 years ago when all three state court seats were open. Pennsylvania Democrats held a registration advantage of roughly one million voters and enjoyed abundant donor cash. The three Democratic candidates — Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty, and David Wecht — raised more than $5.6 million combined, more than double what their Republican and independent opponents collected prior to the general election.

Pennsylvanians of both parties suffered when, in 2015, the GOP lost the Supreme Court majority. The three losses marked a dramatic setback for Pennsylvania Republicans. Although the fear at the time was that the defeat would ripple into the 2016 U.S. Senate and presidential races and undermine the party’s hold on the state legislature, those concerns proved unfounded. The following year, President Donald Trump carried Pennsylvania, Sen. Pat Toomey won reelection, and Republicans performed strongly overall.

Nevertheless, the court’s left-leaning composition had major negative consequences. In one of its most significant moves, in 2018 the court struck down the state’s congressional map just seven years after it had been approved by a bipartisan legislature, then it unilaterally redrew the districts in a way that tilted the balance of power toward Democrats.

The court also exasperated many voters — particularly Republicans, independents, and moderate Democrats — with rulings that expanded the executive branch’s power to impose draconian COVID restrictions and extend mail-in ballot counting deadlines by three days after the polls closed. Pennsylvania was one of the first states to impose a stay-at-home order; Wolf worked closely with his state Secretary of Health, Rachel Levine, to make decisions about elderly COVID care that had fatal results for some senior citizens. By the summer of 2020, around 70% of Pennsylvania’s COVID deaths occurred in nursing homes, leading to renewed criticism that Wolf and Levine readmitted infected patients back into nursing homes and that the Wolf/Levine administration had stopped nursing home health inspections. In a recent Pittsburgh Post-Gazette op-ed, state constitutional scholar Bruce Ledewitz wrote that after the 2015 redistricting that affected elections and COVID-19, the court “has favored Democratic Party interests.”

The so-called retention vote on the three incumbent judges requires a straight yes or no; none face challengers, and none are allowed to campaign. Should the three lose, Governor Josh Shapiro has the authority to appoint their replacements — assuredly liberals like those voted out and himself. But the rub for Shapiro is that his appointments need approval from the Republican-controlled state Senate.

Only one justice, Democrat Russell Nigro in 2005, has failed a retention vote, an indication of the high bar Republicans must overcome. But keenly aware of the important stakes, the GOP is pouring resources into getting out the “No” vote, and Democrats including Shapiro are stepping up their efforts in kind. Shapiro has waded knee-deep into the state Supreme Court race, a race both parties admit has far-reaching implications for the upcoming 2026 midterms, the 2028 presidential race, and future post-2030 Census redistricting in the swingiest of swing states. A potential 2028 presidential contender himself, Shapiro is featured in a newly launched ad that endorses the three Democratic justices while warning Pennsylvanians that “the threats to our freedoms are very real” — a curious appeal given the statewide COVID shutdowns of schools, churches, and businesses that unilaterally stripped away citizens’ constitutionally protected liberties.

Campaign spending on the 2015 race topped $16 million, making it the most expensive state Supreme Court election in U.S. history at the time. Analysts predict the 2025 total spending will exceed the amount spent a decade ago. If even two of the justices are voted out, the GOP would secure a 4–3 Supreme Court majority and would therefore have the upper hand should the 2026 and 2028 elections result in contentious litigation. Also up for grabs: one Superior and Commonwealth court seat, 18 district attorney races, and 32 sheriff races. The stakes for Pennsylvanians are high, and voter turnout — historically low — will be key.

Joe Guzzardi is an Institute for Sound Public Policy analyst. Contact him at jguzzardi@ifspp.org