Diamond Princess Coronavirus Benchmark

Diamond Princess Coronavirus Benchmark — Stocks have fallen more than 4,000 points in eight days as of 11 a.m., Feb. 28 on Coronavirus COVID-19 fears. Is the sell-off rational? Frankly, if this thing is going to be an apocalyptic disaster, we’d be less worried about our investments and more interested in stocking up on alcohol wipes and food supplies.

OK, and alcohol without the wipes.

What good is money going to be at the end of the world?

And if this in not going to be the apocalypse, the market is going to be totally cooking when certainty returns in a few months.

So is it the apocalypse? The Diamond Princess seems a good indicator. The British-registered vessel operated by Princess Cruises packs 3,700 passengers and crew in a space about three football-fields long and and height of a mid-sized skyscraper. It’s more densely populated than any city in the world.

The virus is believed to have crept onto the ship on Jan. 20. It was discovered 16 days later. As of yesterday — 38 days after the virus arrived — 705 cases have been confirmed which is about 19 percent of the population with five deaths, the latest being a British man. That’s a .07 percent fatality rate so far.

Johns Hopkins is providing good data regarding the spread of the disease and that can be found here.

Concern is required but panic is not. The stock market will come back, and food and alcohol will not go to waste.

Diamond Princess Coronavirus Benchmark
Diamond Princess Coronavirus Benchmark

One thought on “Diamond Princess Coronavirus Benchmark”

  1. Your article assumes that the coronavirus is responsible for the stock market free-fall, which is also what the financial talking heads agree is the case. But correlation doesn’t have to mean causation, and even if there is a causative relation, the coronavirus isn’t necessarily causing 100% of the drop.

    Other factors that might matter include the changing balance of power in the South China Sea; historically high valuations making the drop bigger than the virus alone could cause; and the market factoring in whatever it thinks will happen in the November elections.

    That said, here are my 100% accurate predictions: China’s markets drop less and recover faster than ours do, but ours do in fact recover, even if a bear market follows this correction. Bears don’t live forever in the wild or on Wall Street. The bull will run again 😃 But I don’t know with 100% accuracy when 😕

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