The Eagles play the Dallas Cowboys at 4:30 this afternoon. Both teams have 8-3 records.
Since 2002 when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, six of the 144 playoff contestants reached the post season with but eight wins. As there have been 47 teams that finished the year 8-8 or 8-7-1 — that would be you Green Bay — the Birds would have about a 13 percent chance of making the playoffs if they don’t win another game.
If they just win another game that increases their chances to 42 percent as 16 of the 38 teams that wound up with nine regular season wins went to the playoffs in the last 11 years.
If they win 10 they have a 84 percent chance of making it since 37 of 44 such teams did since the expansion.
It they win 11 it goes up to just under 97 percent chance. Only the 2008 New England Patriots, of the thirty 11-win teams failed to make the playoffs.
Every team with 12, 13, 14 or 15 wins made the playoffs as did obviously the regular-season undefeated 2007 New England Patriots.
The 2010 Seattle Seahawks made the post season with a 7-9 record. One could argue that that means there is a 2 percent chance of a seven-win team making it — there have been 39 seven-game winners since 2002– but as Seattle was the only team in the league’s 93-year-history to reach the post-season with a losing record, we will suggest it is much less.
The NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978. Five years later, it expanded from 28 to 30 teams then to 31 in 1999 before reaching its present status.
It began having a 12 team playoff in 1990.
The 2010 Seattle Seahawks made the post season with a 7-9 record. One could argue that that means there is a 2 percent chance of a seven-win team making it — there have been 39 seven-game winners since 2002– but as Seattle was the only team in the league’s 93-year-history to reach the post-season with a losing record, we will suggest it is much less.
It’s gonna happen again. The NFC South leaders have to win three of the next four to break even.